Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Los Vegas Odds maker View of 2012 Election

From: Anne R.
Sent: June 19, 2012
To: undisclosed recipients
Subject: Fw: Los Vegas Odds maker View of 2012 Election
Los Vegas Odds maker View of 2012 Election
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or 
prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am
neither. l am a former Libertarian vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known
Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political

Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. l believe both
Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally
conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history.
Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s
possible to turnaround America.
But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political
races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them.
Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back
then before a single GOP primary had been held; with Romney trailing for
months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt
that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a
landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and
Romney would be very close until Election Day. But that on Election Day
Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan­Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney
victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to
Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give
Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient, common sense. Here is my gut
instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to
Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an
unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about
the future. Voters know Obama now and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

1) Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His
endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians.
He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good
news for Obama.

2) Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If
Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10%
to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for

3) Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish
voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish
support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low '60’s.'”This is not good news for

4) Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years
ago have graduated into a job market from - I AM A POTTY MOUTH. Young
people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke, a bad combination. The
enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will
actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

5) Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t
happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the
Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic
Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

6) Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around,
and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business
owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted
for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. I warned them that
he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a
business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he’d
overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four
years later, I can‘t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends
voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

6) Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working
class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about
the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

7) Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception it’s having a job to pay for
contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about
putting food on the table. They fear for their chiidren’s future. This is not good
news for Obama.

8) Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by
24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked
him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will
anyone in America wake up on Election Day saying I didn’t vote for Obama 4
years ago, but he’s done such a fantastic job; I can’t wait to vote for him today.
Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes theirjob more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense
small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a
repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. lt's Reagan-Carter all
over again.

Give Obama credit for one thing he is living proof that familiarity breeds

Thanks for the election prediction by the Vegas odds maker. l believe he on target, and the exit polls in
the recall vote less than two weeks ago in Wisconsin do show how unreliable some polls can be. Because
of the cleep distrust of the media, conservative voters refused to be interview as they left poling places
and only those pro­union iiberals consented to respond to questions thereby distorting the results. I am
convinced the only way for Obama to win is for them to steal the election. The Republican candidates will
Succeed if their vote totals exceed the percentage of voter fraud.

Paul M. Franke, Jr.

Franke & Salloum, PLLC

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